Black Friday Online Retail Up, Cyber Monday Will Be Bellwether

REASEARCH BRIEF

FROM THE CENTER FOR MEDIA RESEARCH

Monday, December 1, 2008

comScore, in an overnight report, said that for the holiday season-to-date, $10.41 billion has been spent online, marking a 4-percent decline versus the corresponding days last year, while Black Friday saw $534 million in online spending, up 1 percent. For the combination of Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, online sales were up 2 percent relative to last year.

comScore chairman, Gian Fulgoni, said "Early reports suggest that Black Friday sales in retail stores were slightly better than anticipated... and that performance apparently extended to the online channel, which saw sales on Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday combined increase 2 percent versus year ago... Black Friday consumers responded positively to the very aggressive promotions and discounts being offered in retail stores... "

The Black Friday early morning rush online, between the hours of 4:00-8:00 AM, accounted for just 11 percent of the day's total online retail sales, while the period after 8:00 AM saw 84 percent of online sales take place. The 12:00- 4:00 PM segment represented the highest share of Black Friday online sales, with the hour of 12:00-1:00 PM being the heaviest individual hour of spending.

The Monday after Thanksgiving, popularly known as "Cyber Monday," represents the first significant spike in online spending activity for the holiday season. The phenomenon results from Cyber Monday being the first working day following the Thanksgiving holiday and the fact that purchases from work still account for approximately half of all e-commerce spending.

 Cyber Monday has historically proved to be an accurate bellwether for the overall performance of the online holiday shopping season, says the comScore report. While the year-over-year growth rates for individual online spending days vary quite significantly throughout the season, during the past few years Cyber Monday has been within a few percentage points of the final holiday season growth rate.

Fulgoni concluded, "Cyber Monday may well prove to be an important indicator of whether the decline in spending that we've seen during the first few weeks of the online holiday season will continue for the balance of the year."

 In a comScore survey, conducted between Friday, November 21 and Monday, November 24, 33% of consumers said they had not even begun their holiday shopping yet. They also indicated they intended to cut back on holiday spending in several ways, most notably by buying fewer gifts (47% of respondents) and buying less expensive gifts (46% of respondents). Respondents also said they planned to employ the Internet to help cut costs, by taking advantage of free shipping and/or no sales tax (3%).

And this year the economic slowdown will have toy manufacturers and retailers in a bit of a panic according to the results from The Harris Poll survey of 2,303 adults, surveyed online between October 20 and 27, 2008.

• 47% of Americans say they will purchase toys as gifts this holiday season while 41% say they will not
• Among households with children, 71% will purchase toys this holiday season, but 21% say they will not
• Among those who will purchase toys this holiday season, 44% say the amount they will spend for these purchases will be less than last year
• 36% of toy purchasers say they will spend about the same as last year for toys
• Looking at toy purchases by income level, 52% of those who will purchase toys and have a household income of less than $35,000, 50% between $35,000 and $49,999, and 51% between $50,000 and $74,999 say the amount they will spend this year will be less than last year.
• When it comes to what people will be buying, 47% will be purchasing children's books, while 38% will purchase games for consoles, and about 1/3 will purchase board games, arts and crafts, and dolls.
• Women are more likely to purchase children's books (52% vs. 40%) and arts and crafts (37% vs. 28%). Men, on the other hand, are more likely to purchase sports equipment (31% vs. 15%) and handheld electronic games (30% vs. 21%)

According to Peter Shafer, Vice President of Harris Interactive's Youth Center of Excellence, "Toy manufacturers can't catch a break. Holiday toy spending last year was impacted by the toy recall in China, and this year it is the global economic downturn. But kids being kids are still lobbying their parents for their favorite toys. Kids tell Harris they want toys that are fun to play with and encourage creativity. Parents, even though spending for toys may be less, have heard the message and are shifting their purchases towards those favored toys."

For more about the comScore report, please go here.

For more about the Harris Poll, please go here.

For more information visit www.mediapost.com